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The Market Rundown -
4/7/2025

This column is my opinion and expresses my views and should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities. Those views can change quickly when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page.

Last week, global financial markets experienced significant declines, primarily driven by escalating trade tensions initiated by the United States. On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including a 10% blanket levy on all imports and higher duties on specific goods from countries such as China, the European Union, Japan, and Vietnam. This aggressive trade policy, dubbed "Liberation Day," aimed to address perceived trade imbalances but instead sparked widespread investor concern and market volatility. ​

In response to the tariff announcements, major U.S. stock indices suffered substantial losses:​

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  • S&P 500: Entered bear market territory, declining over 20% from its February peak. ​

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Plummeted by 5.5% (2,231.07 points) on April 4, closing at 38,314.86. ​

  • Nasdaq Composite: Declined by 5.8% (962.82 points) on the same day, ending at 15,587.79. ​

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The volatility index (VIX), a measure of market fear, spiked to levels not seen since the early pandemic period, indicating heightened investor anxiety.

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The repercussions extended beyond U.S. borders:

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  • Asia: Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled 7.8%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plunged 13.2%, marking its steepest drop since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. ​

  • Europe: Germany's DAX index fell over 6%, reflecting concerns about the continent's export-driven economies. ​​

Certain sectors were notably affected:

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  • Technology: Companies like Tesla, AMD, and Palantir experienced steep declines due to concerns over supply chain disruptions and increased production costs. ​

  • Energy: Oil prices plunged to a four-year low, with Brent crude dropping by 16%, amid fears of reduced global demand. ​

 

On top of that, Powell hinted that the new tariffs might drive inflation higher than anticipated—exactly the kind of news the market didn’t want. If his goal was to calm investors, he missed the moment. He knew where the S&P 500 stood heading into the event; by 10:50 AM, it was already down more than 5%. Given how fast things were moving, one could argue that a dovish Powell—signaling swift and aggressive rate cuts—might have steadied the market or even pushed it back to breakeven.

 

But this time, Powell didn’t step in. Maybe he’s letting Trump face the consequences alone, or maybe he’s laser-focused on inflation, not market stability. Either way, there’s no Powell put.

 

Understanding how markets operate—and assuming Trump stays quiet, which I suspect he will—the market may keep pressing until he caves. In this high-stakes showdown of egos, the market tends to win. It’s broken everyone in my lifetime, and it’s still undefeated.

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This page contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Joshua Pilgreen is President and an investment adviser representative with Arbor Portfolio Management. Mr. Pilgreen is not affiliated with any company and does not serve on the board of any related company that was mentioned in the commentary. All opinions and analyses presented by Joshua Pilgreen in this analysis or market report are solely Joshua Pilgreen’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Joshua Pilgreen as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Joshua Pilgreen’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Joshua Pilgreen nor Arbor Portfolio Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Joshua Pilgreen nor Arbor Portfolio Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you.

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 Address. 2400 Herodian Way SE, #220, Smyrna, GA 30080   Phone: 470-763-3798   Email: info@arborportfoliomanagement.com

Arbor Portfolio Management and its representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisors by those jurisdictions in which Arbor Portfolio Management maintains clients. Arbor Portfolio Management may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Arbor Portfolio Management’s website is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of Arbor Portfolio Management’s website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Arbor Portfolio Management’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by Arbor Portfolio Management with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Arbor Portfolio Management, please contact the SEC, FINRA or the state securities regulators for those states in which Arbor Portfolio Management maintains a filing.

 

A copy of Arbor Portfolio Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing Arbor Portfolio Management’s business operations, service, and fees is available from Arbor Portfolio Management upon written request. Arbor Portfolio Management does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Arbor Portfolio Management’s website or Incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

 

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (Including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Arbor Portfolio Management) made reference to directly or indirectly by Arbor Portfolio Management in its website, or indirectly by a link to an unaffiliated third party website, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio.

 

Certain portions of Arbor Portfolio Management’s website (i.e. newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Arbor Portfolio Management’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendations(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized advice from Arbor Portfolio Management, or form any other investment professional. Arbor Portfolio Management is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of the website content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice. 

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Arbor Portfolio Management may provide links from this Site to a non- Arbor Portfolio Management Website or permit a link from a non- Arbor Portfolio Management Website to this Site. Such links are for your convenience only and do not imply any affiliation with, or an endorsement, authorization, sponsorship or promotion of the non- Arbor Portfolio Management website or its owner Arbor Portfolio Management does not control or review any link, and accepts no responsibility for the content, products or services provided at these linked websites. If you decide to access such non- Arbor Portfolio Management Websites, you do so solely at your own risk and you should be aware that non- Arbor Portfolio Management websites are governed by their own terms and conditions and privacy policies. Links to this site may be made only with the permission of Arbor Portfolio Management A link to this Site may be permitted in Arbor Portfolio Management’s discretion, where, without limitation, such link (a) is to this site’s homepage, (b) clearly informs users that the link is to the Arbor Portfolio Management Website, (c) does not imply any affiliation, endorsement, sponsorship or other relationship between the link Arbor Portfolio Management Website or the Website owner and Arbor Portfolio Management, (d) delivers this site’s Content without framing or similar environment, and (e) maintains the integrity of this site’s layout, content and look and feel. Arbor Portfolio Management reserves the right in its sole discretion to refuse permission or to cancel permission to link to this site at any time

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