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The Market Rundown -
1/21/2025

This column is my opinion and expresses my views and should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities. Those views can change quickly when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I disclose all my positions clearly listed on the page.

The CPI report came out last Wednesday and the market reacted strongly from the news. The headline news was the CPI report was much lower than expected, but in reality, it in largely as expected. The swap market begun to trade for a hotter than expected thus when the news came in slightly better the market swung to the upside. The headline reading at 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) and 2.9% year-over-year (y/y). Some final data adjustments pushed core CPI estimates to 0.3% m/m, which led to a slight miss when the actual result came in at 0.2%. However, it's hard to view this as a major surprise or a sign that conditions have significantly improved. The January CPI swaps pricing remained unchanged, with the expectation that CPI will rise 2.9% y/y, implying a 0.3% m/m increase. Overall, there hasn’t been much shift in that regard.

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The decline in rates was mainly driven by the Core CPI report and a sharp drop in European rates following a weak UK CPI report. Before the US CPI report, the 10-year Gilt was trading down by 11 basis points, ultimately finishing lower by 18 basis points.

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Global factors have influenced the significant move in the US 10-year today, as they have played a major role in driving US rates higher. The 10-year rate had become overbought and was due for a pullback. I believe it will find support in the 4.65% to 4.7% range, as this has been a consolidation area on multiple occasions.

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Welcome Back.

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Yesterday Trump officially became president, and it is safe to say he will be very probusiness. His speech not only bashed the previous administration— while they were sitting 2 feet away from him—but he made a lot of pro American promises.

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 The first executive order signed by Trump revoked 78 executive orders from former President Joe Biden's administration. Trump also withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accords, an initiative from the Obama era, claiming that this move would save the country over a trillion dollars.

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Additionally, Trump issued a memorandum enacting a regulatory and hiring freeze on the federal government until the new administration could fully take charge. He signed an executive order aimed at preventing “government censorship” of free speech and directed all federal departments to address inflation, which had been triggered by the nearly $2 trillion American Rescue Plan that Biden signed into law in March 2021.

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Other than the continuing signing of executive orders, we will be watching the Initial Jobless Claims that come out on Thursday. The expectation is 218K but who knows where the number will come in.

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Overall, an exciting past two weeks, and certainly more to come.

This page contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Joshua Pilgreen is President and an investment adviser representative with Arbor Portfolio Management. Mr. Pilgreen is not affiliated with any company and does not serve on the board of any related company that was mentioned in the commentary. All opinions and analyses presented by Joshua Pilgreen in this analysis or market report are solely Joshua Pilgreen’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Joshua Pilgreen as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Joshua Pilgreen’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Joshua Pilgreen nor Arbor Portfolio Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Joshua Pilgreen nor Arbor Portfolio Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you.

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 Address. 2400 Herodian Way SE, #220, Smyrna, GA 30080   Phone: 470-763-3798   Email: info@arborportfoliomanagement.com

Arbor Portfolio Management and its representatives are in compliance with the current filing requirements imposed upon registered investment advisors by those jurisdictions in which Arbor Portfolio Management maintains clients. Arbor Portfolio Management may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Arbor Portfolio Management’s website is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its advisory services, together with access to additional investment related information, publications, and links. Accordingly, the publication of Arbor Portfolio Management’s website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as Arbor Portfolio Management’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, over the Internet. Any subsequent, direct communication by Arbor Portfolio Management with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of Arbor Portfolio Management, please contact the SEC, FINRA or the state securities regulators for those states in which Arbor Portfolio Management maintains a filing.

 

A copy of Arbor Portfolio Management’s current written disclosure statement discussing Arbor Portfolio Management’s business operations, service, and fees is available from Arbor Portfolio Management upon written request. Arbor Portfolio Management does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to Arbor Portfolio Management’s website or Incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefor. All such information is provided solely for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

 

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (Including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Arbor Portfolio Management) made reference to directly or indirectly by Arbor Portfolio Management in its website, or indirectly by a link to an unaffiliated third party website, will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated performance level(s). Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio.

 

Certain portions of Arbor Portfolio Management’s website (i.e. newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, Arbor Portfolio Management’s (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions and/or recommendations of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendations(s). Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized advice from Arbor Portfolio Management, or form any other investment professional. Arbor Portfolio Management is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of the website content should be interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice. 

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